Papi, Pap, Josh: What's It Gonna Be

I went back and forth over the hot stove season.

At first, I was alarmed by Boston’s offseason moves — who the Red Sox initially acquired, who they let go, who they were talking about letting go.
That changed when the Sox signed John Lackey, given the added potency he leant to the starting rotation, and stuck with Jacoby Ellsbury. That’s when I started buying whole-heartedly into all that conventional wisdom about the defensive upgrade wrought by the addition of Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron. Shoot, given our shortstop situation last year, Scutaro can’t help but be better.

But, you know, it never pays to go with the crowd and simply join the chorus. Here at the dawn of the 2010 season, I find myself quivering in the middle like a tuning fork. As I see it, Sox success will be determined primarily by the guys they already have.

To wit: Will Jonathan Papelbon be the lights-out closer he’s been or the high-wire act he was last year? Pap may have had 38 saves in 41 opportunities, but his collapse in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Angels was more indicative of the steady flirtation with disaster that was his 2009.

Same with Josh Beckett. For a 17-game winner, his work last year was very uneven and followed on the heels of a sub-par 2008. We need a return of Revolver ’07.

If the Sox get that in combination with Jon Lester, who I believe to be the true team ace, and Lackey, well, that’s one hell of a 1-2-3 punch. Winning contributions from Clay Buchholz, Dice-K and Tim Wakefield would be rich gravy. (Respect Timmah, pulling for Clay — he needs to break out now — and still far from sold on Dice, though his head seems to be finally in the right place.)

The other pitching variable is the catching. This is the season Jason Varitek cedes ground after manning the Sox plate for a decade. His bat may have faded years ago, but his ability to handle the pitching staff has not, and that’s the most important part of the job. That’s where Victor Martinez, who can belt the ball, must truly deliver.

As for the offense, which took the biggest hit with the departure of Jason Bay, the biggest linchpin, it seems to me, is Big Papi. There’s no question the larger-than-life role he filled in the middle of last decade has passed for reasons either natural or unnatural. But he’s still a key cog in the wheel and we can’t be sitting around till Memorial Day waiting for him to hit his first home run and get over the Mendoza line.

Not with the Yankees to chase and the Rays to reckon with in the East, and the Twins, Angels and even Rangers to confront on the rest of the AL game board. But we’ve gone to the postseason six of the last seven seasons. Why should we expect that to change?